Small Company Champion & Lemming Investors Research and Newsletter Updates
Wednesday, 12 May 2021
Thursday, 4 March 2021
Tuesday, 9 February 2021
The most recent webinar by Open Orphan Plc (ORPH) was again very encouraging on several fronts. It is not unusual for a webinar - Investor presentation not to be optimistic. What is out of the ordinary, from my experience, is the level of opportunities, primers for significant appreciation for even more share price gains; yes, even after the 400% plus increases in 2020, and the bull gains in 2021. Had it not been for Invesco selling down, Open Orphan would likely be north of 40p now.
So what of these opportunities?
The highlights for me are as follows:
- The company could be split from its core business resulting in 3 in-species dividends; is 1 for 1 Cathal explained.
- PrepBiopharm, Influenza Immune Modulator & disease in motion (DIM)
- He explained the first of these (Imutex) could be as early as 4-6 weeks. He explained Covid-19 had hindered progress but stressed this is very close now.
- Two further spin-outs, again, one Open Orphan share, one newco share
- Chinese very keen on challenge studies
- Potential huge Covid CHIM licensing deals/studies with the Chinese State
- Emphasis profitable no more losses
- The expectation is to reach a market value of £1bn as being realistically achievable.
- FY results after easter - they will not disappoint.
- Looking for investors stake build
- Six challenge models
- Company is the world leader in testing vaccines via Controlled Human Infection Models (CHIMs)
- New ''Disease in Motion'' (DIM) platform with potential current market cap valuation of £200m
- DIM could be spun-out
- New Whitechapel Quarantine Clinic opened February 2021 with an expanded 19-bed capacity.
Friday, 5 February 2021
Ramsdens Holdings Plc (RFX) is a financial services provider and retailer, operating in the core business segments of foreign currency exchange, pawnbroking & logbook loans, buying and selling precious metals and retailing of second hand and new jewellery through its network of 127 stores throughout the UK, including 3 franchised stores, and has a small and growing online presence.
In the last financial year, the Group served over 700,000 customers across its different services. Ramsdens is a trading name of Ramsdens Financial Limited and is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority for consumer credit activities.
Do not make the mistake of assuming Ramsdens sell low-value cheap tat; the ring above has a price tag of £14,499 or £182.05 per month.
As you can see from the chart that begins at the March selloff, there is a prolonged consolidation period with a tilt to the slow downside. I view this as an opportunity to scale-in until such a time, the company offers further guidance. This is subject to your belief, or not as the case may be, of how quickly we are released from the hell of lockdown.
Tuesday, 17 November 2020
Regular readers will be well aware of OptiBiotix Health Plc (OPTI) is my largest holding. The fact the company features more than any other company has nothing to do with this fact, the 78 agreements signed in some 120n countries should be an indicator of why the company features so often.
I report today on a rare event - Group chairman, Neil Davidson, being wheeled out for a Proactive interview. Short and Sweet, if you excuse the pun. During the interview Neil emphasised the next exciting stage for the company in 2021, this being the ''next generation'' products. The emphasis being SweetBiotix, not forgetting the modulation part of the business which is looking very exciting for the future because of the ability to ''target health'' issues through microbiome modulation. For now, well, 2021, ''SweetBiotix in particular'' appears to be the next exciting stage. With a bulk manufacturing agreement now in place and 11 potential partnerships at the table, it is just a matter of time now before we see the holy grail of sugar inside regular everyday products using SweetBiotix as a replacement healthier functional fibre lower calorific products - a major issue globally and one company are coming under increasing pressure to solve by both governments and the consumers.
Neil suggests ''profitability by the end of this year.'' I am going to be cautious and assume he means FY 2020 and not the end of 2020, although there is cause to assume the latter and not the former given the emotional language he used when speaking of the pre and probiotic first-generation products; LP-LDL and SlimBiome, WellBiome, etc.
Neil described sales for the prebiotics as being ''massive' and probiotic as being ''really exceptional.'' This did make me chuckle somewhat because Stephen O'Hara and I were discussing emotional language in interviews last week, and Stephen always uses statistical language to get the message across as a means of managing investor expectations. Clearly, there are competing emotions expressing the direction and development of the company, which looks to be very exciting. That said, how do we measure the tone Neil uses? Either FY 2019 of record H1 2020, which compared with FY 2019. The latter clearly indicated the direction the company is going, more so as we still need to keep royalties revenues as H2 weighted at this stage - so a multiplier of 3 times £740,000 of H1 is not too much of a stretch on a conservative level given the difficult conditions companies are working in with Covid-19. That said, Neil did say it has not been massively impacted, which does seem to be an odd phrase considering his earlier comments related to pre, probiotic sales.
As Stephen says, we need to manage expectation, after all, we don't want a repeat of FY 2018. Investor expectations were too high, but even so, did not seem too outlandish. Nevertheless, we have not recovered from this yet. Hopefully, Neil's language has not set us up for a fall.
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