Small Company Champion & Lemming Investors Research and Newsletter Updates

Showing posts sorted by relevance for query AVA. Sort by date Show all posts
Showing posts sorted by relevance for query AVA. Sort by date Show all posts

Saturday, 30 January 2021

AVA Risk Group - Sets Another Record Quarter!




 


AVA Risk Group (ASX AVA) - Appendix 4C market leader in risk management service, comprising world-leading technology divisions Future Fibre Technologies (FFT) and BQT Solutions (BQT), and international secure logistics services division Ava Global, is a market leader in the provision of risk management services and technologies provide an update on the key areas of activity for another record quarter ended 31 December 2020.

The quarter builds on its core strengths, increase its net cash position, and announces a Special Dividend of au$0.02c per share, paid on 11th March.

Ava has been a great multi-bag experience with an added bonus of paying a Special dividend. I first featured the company at au$0.12c.

As you can see from the chart cover 12 months, the shares touched au$0.80c, I expect this to be tested this year and beyond. I continue to hold my modest holding in my SIPP.


  • $4.4m positive operating cash flows for the quarter
  • Increased cash holdings, consolidated net cash position of $13.4m



Principal Activities
Ava Group is a security technology and services company that develops and commercialises a range of high-security perimeter and access control products to protect military, government, industrial and commercial critical assets and infrastructure. These products are sold through its Future Fibre Technologies (FFT) and BQT Solutions (BQT) brands. The company operates Ava Global, its international secure logistics division, delivering clients with reliable, secure delivery for banknotes, precious metals, and other valuables.
 
Ava group Achieves Record Result for H1 FY2021.  
On 14 January 2021, Ava Group announced its unaudited revenue and profit growth for the first half of FY2021:
  • Sales Revenues have increased by approximately 70% compared to the same period last year to be in excess of $35.0 million for the half-year.
  • EBITDA has improved by circa 450% compared to the same period last year, to exceed $12.0 million for the half-year.
  • All business units are profitable for the half-year.
Cash at the bank as at 31 December 2020 of $13.4 million.
 
Key areas of activity during the second quarter of the 2021 financial year related to:
  • Our strategies for delivering profitable growth and generating positive cashflow produced an increase of $1.8m in net cash holdings at 31 December 2020, after $2.3m in dividends to shareholders. This reflects continued revenue growth, customer cash collections, positive EBITDA performance, and our capital-light operating model.
  • During Q2 FY2021, we received a $2.6m payment relating to the IMOD contract for FFT’s data network security technology. The Company will receive additional IMOD payments of circa $3.8m in H2 FY2021 for amounts already invoiced. The total contract value for this project is estimated at US$11.9m (A$15.6m) inclusive of income tax credits. Having already recognised $4.8m in FY2020 and $3.6m of revenue in Q1 FY2021, the Company recognised a further $4.1m of revenue in Q2 FY2021. The revenues are income tax credits under the Australian Indian DTAA, which are also available to the company to offset income tax payable. To the end of December 2020, 1,400 units have been shipped to the end-user with another 500+ units completed awaiting shipment. We expect the balance of project deliveries to occur during H2 FY2021.  Ava Group holds a Bank Guarantee as security for ~US$2.1m (~A$2.9m), to cover payments when due.
  • Services Division saw the benefits of our strategy implemented in the past 12 months, including expanding our customer base and service offerings.
  • The business continued its COVID-19 safety measures, including supporting staff to work from home, reducing the need for people to come into our offices worldwide, based on local conditions. The health and safety of our staff and customers remain a paramount priority for the business.
  • The Company received circa $0.1m during Q2 FY2021 related to various global government initiatives to support businesses during these unusual times, down $0.3m from the previous quarter.
  • The Services Division continued to provide a full range of services to all of its customers, despite the continued reduction in air freight capacity worldwide due to COVID-19. These restrictions allowed Ava Global the opportunity to innovate and offer a range of bespoke cargo and charter aircraft solutions to ensure that it could continue to deliver currency, precious metals and other valuable goods for its customers.  Client activity has significantly increased during FY2021, with the addition of both new clients, several new contracts win, and a wider breadth of services are offered.  This has been ably facilitated thanks to the depth of skills and experience within the Services Division and further supported by 3 additional new hires in USA, Germany and Singapore.
  • For the Technology Division, both FFT and BQT continue their COVID-19 control measures to maintain production and order fulfilment.  Although the ability to deliver site services was restricted for FFT, we received initial orders for the multi-year Comprehensive Maintenance offering that includes remote monitoring. The FFT Aura IQ conveyor health monitoring solution “Proof of Value” Trials continued despite delays from COVID-19 travel restrictions during the quarter.  FFT successfully commissioned its latest Machine Learning configuration at two major high-security projects internationally and demonstrated increased levels of intrusion sensitivity along with significant reductions in nuisance alarms. During the quarter BQT successfully completed the current program order of readers for the contract from the Australian Department of Defence (DoD) under the larger Australian Government.
  • Operating cash outflows for the quarter of $11.6m was mostly comprised of product manufacturing and operating costs ($7.7m), staff costs ($3.0m), and administration and corporate costs ($0.6m).
  • During the quarter the Company made payments of approximately $201,000 to Directors and their associates. This includes all Executive Directors and Non-executive fees, salaries, cash bonuses, and consultancy and service fees paid to related or associated parties of Directors, including in respect of subsidiary operations whereby directors are related parties.
Commentary on Appendix 4C Cash Flow Report
The quarter's net operating cash flows were positive $4.4m an increase of $0.7m on the previous quarter, and a $4.6m improvement on the same time last year. This was due to an increase in cash collections from customers compared the prior quarter, up to $2.4m, and up to $7.4m at the same time last year. Operating costs were circa $2.2m higher than the prior quarter, and $2.9m higher than the same time last year driven by higher payments for product manufacturing and operating costs which increased $0.9m quarter on quarter and $2.2m compared to the same time last year as a result of increased sales.  The Group also continued developing the Aura Ai and Aura IQ platforms, continuing its R&D spending and intellectual property spending during the quarter, at a slightly higher level than the previous quarter.  
 
Cash receipts from customers in Q2 included $2.6m from the Indian MoD project.  This project's next payment is expected during March, being an amount of $1.9m (A$2.6m), in line with the 120 days project payment terms.
 
At 31 December 2020, the Company had $13.4m cash at bank.

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Some of the companies named may have retraced, some of them are set to go again. I leave it to the reader to decide when to buy and sell.

I am not authorised by the FCA I, therefore, cannot offer investment advice. The site and the content within are for research and reading material.

I will likely have a financial interest in some of the companies featured - you should assume I do.


Wednesday, 12 May 2021

Ava Risk Group - Material Uplift Pending

 

Caption



Ava Risk Group (ASX: AVA) has been disappointing this year and someway defies belief because the company has made astonishing progress on all fronts. Most companies have struggled due to covid-19; many have cut or not paid a dividend because the strategy is to preserve cash. AVA has bucked this trend by paying dividends, increasing net cash, increased margins, and debt-free; what’s not to like!



For now, the shares languish around the au$0.41c, which is 50% off their high but well ahead of my initial report at au$0.12c.




Thursday, 25 March 2021

AVA Risk Group - $1.8+ million Multi-Site Rail Contract Award

 

 

My Australian multi-bagger; Ava Risk Group Limited (ASX: AVA), is pleased to announce that its world-leading Aura Ai sensing solution has been selected to be deployed for a multi-site program to upgrade security at certain major rail facilities in South America:

  • Security upgrade program with a total award value of more than US$1.40 million (A$1.84 million).
  • Multiple Aura Ai-2 systems will be fully integrated with the customer’s existing video management software and CCTV system.
  • The first purchase order received exceeding US$0.47million (A$0.61 million).
  • Initial deployment at first sites in early Q4 FY2021 with the balance of sites expected for deployment before the end of Q4 FY2021.

Ava Group CEO Rob Broomfield said, “FFT Aura Ai-2 was the solution selected, to protect the rail sites, due to our exceptional event classification capability, extended sensing distance and cut resilience capability. A further key factor in the contract win was FFT’s previous success in protecting railway infrastructure and the company’s strong reputation across the broader transportation sector."

What is FFT Aura Ai-2?

AURA AI-2 PROVIDES TWO CHANNEL LONG RANGE HIGH SENSITIVITY INTRUSION DETECTION FFT Aura Ai-2 applies artificial intelligence to detect and locate skilled stealthy intruders climbing, cutting or lifting perimeter fences with high sensitivity. With two real-time simultaneous detection channels, Aura Ai-2 can be configured to provide cut resilience and redundancy. FFT Aura Ai-2 also provides high sensitivity detection in buried fibre applications such as covert buried or pipeline intrusion detection. FFT Aura Ai-2 is also perfect for monitoring fibre optic communications networks. The system can monitor tapping and tampering by connecting spare (dark) fibres inside each network cable to Aura Ai-2. Network cable disturbances, including removing protective layers, attempted tapping or cable movement, will be instantly detected and generate an alarm indicating the location. Aura Ai-2’s next-generation optoelectronics deliver industry-leading accuracy over an extended detection distance of 80 km (50 miles) on fences or 110km (70 miles) when buried. APPLICATIONS Intelligence Agencies Nuclear Facilities Data Networks Armed Forces Correctional Facilities Power Stations Oil and Gas Perimeters and Pipelines Airports Borders.

Today's news had little impact on the share price or created much attention on the forums; perhaps another A$1m PLUS is not exciting enough for the Australian investment community. Perhaps they are more expectant on another front. I know I am waiting for what I believe will be the game-changer for this company and the mining conveyor belt industry. Tests for the Aura IQ, I expect, will change the way big mining corporations mines manage conveyor belt maintenance. It is much safer, more accurate and more efficient than conventional monitoring methods and could save mining companies millions of dollars. 

The shares closed flat at A$0.51c, which is a multi-bag from my A$0.12c. I expect it to more than double again. I am keeping a tight grip on my shares because this is a fantastic little Australian company that will continue to grow. It has performed brilliantly over the past year; It has increased margins across the board, increased sales and generated record invoices. This company is only going to get better.

Sunday, 28 March 2021

Lemming and SCC Updates WE 26 the March 2021

It has been a busy week for both sites, with updates; AVA, DDDD, OPTI SPSY, SBTX and ORPH.


I have incorporated the links for those of you less familiar with the sites. 

Synairgen (SNG) and 4D Pharma (DDDD) are letting us down at the moment. Optibiotix Health  (OPTI), well, it seems normal to be frustrated even in the face of a huge boost in the NAV via SkinBiTherapeutics (SBTX) runaway leading multi-baggers, which is challenging ASX listed AVA for the title.

Those of you who prefer less risk should keep an eye on Spectra Systems (SPSY), Ramsdens (RFX) and Warehouse Reit (WHR), which is also waking up after an acquisition spree to boost growth and take advantage of the growing warehouse and storage needs. 

Remember the search facility on both sites. You can change the date thereafter for new or archives. 

AVA Risk Group is primed to go again. Trust me on this. It is just a matter of time.  The clues are there!

Likewise, ORPH will surprise some of the covid rainbow chasing investors and wonder how this let this gem pass them by.

Finally, it has been pointed out to me I should be wary of suggesting £9 million in sales for SBTX because investors may blame me for misleading them. 

Allow me to be clear; the £9.125m sales figure anyone able to navigate their finger around a calculator accurately and punch in £25,000 per day (psoriasis subscriptions) x 365 = £9.125 million would surely arrive at the same. The subscription figure as is the dose are Stuart Ashman's numbers, and they are not mine. Moreover, I have asked Stuart if he is happy to quote these and the maths; he said I put those figures out there. Another £25 million figure = 10% of the £250m to £300 million is the target for the Croda/Sederma Matrixl market share. 

With respect to the psoriasis probiotic launch, this will be a B2c model, so people thinking this will be a slow process as they have experienced with OptiBiotix's LP-LDL probiotic which via a B2B model. Moreover, as a friend says, people with cardiovascular issues still walk in the McD's and feast on a big mac. Someone suffering from psoriasis is more publicly aware of their image. But let us not forget, the consumer study is no longer about treating the horrible condition: Psoriasis; the company announced on Monday they were expanding the study to enabled the inclusion of an additional cohort of participants with non-psoriatic conditions, e.g. AcneEczema, and RosaceaThere even reports of dandruff clearing up!

I'll say this. Stuart Ashman has discussed talks with several psoriasis associations he is in discussions with. The USA association has more than 8 million registered sufferers. 
My default position is to trust what a CEO tells me unless they give cause not to. 

Friday, 5 February 2021

Ramsdens Holdings - A Post Covid-19 Dividend Paying Recovery


Today's feature was first submitted to members on 29th January. To learn how to obtain these reports earlier than general release, please click on the link.


ZULU REPORT

Ramsdens Holdings Plc (RFX) is a financial services provider and retailer, operating in the core business segments of foreign currency exchange, pawnbroking & logbook loans, buying and selling precious metals and retailing of second hand and new jewellery through its network of 127 stores throughout the UK, including 3 franchised stores, and has a small and growing online presence. 


In the last financial year, the Group served over 700,000 customers across its different services. Ramsdens is a trading name of Ramsdens Financial Limited and is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority for consumer credit activities. 


Powder Monkey Brewing Co has nothing to do with Ramsdens, they just brew superb ales at great prices. The company was set up by a good friend of mine. You may know as Mike McGeever and his good friend, ex England hooker, Steve Thomson.

Robust Trading despite Covid-19 

Like all high street businesses, trading in 2020 and early 2021 has been exceptionally tough. The company appears to have taken a proactive measure to preserve cash even in the face of   Revenue growth of 27% (£76.9m) and gross profit growth of 22% (£47.1m), the company decided to cancel the final dividend.

It is likely most, if not everyone reading this will not have a need to use the services of a pawn brokerage, unless you have an eye for a bargain. I dare say you may have walked past them on the high street and not paid any mind. So, here's a brief overview of the business.

The primary service is loans for people with poor credit or in need of a short term small loan banks will not entertain. Typically you need to own something of value. If you take it to a pawn shop, they will be able to give you cash immediately. You then pay interest every month, if not daily, until you want to repurchase the item for the amount you borrowed against it. The item must have a salable value equal to or larger than the loan that is being issued.

Due to the high-interest rate, most loans are short term vary subject to credit check and creditworthiness. The company reported a 60% increase in the loan book.

If interest is not paid, the pawnshop keeps selling the item that was put up for collateral. If the customer pays back the loan (with interest) on time, the item is returned to the customer. A loan of this type is a non-recourse loan, which means that the pawnshop may only collect the item being pledged as collateral in the event of default by the borrower.

I will not drag this report out, it does not warrant a lengthy article because the business is not that complex, plus the key data is easily visualised in the many graphs I have uploaded for you to take your cue. They do say a picture says a thousand words. Those familiar with my predicament with dyslexia will know this has saved me many hours, probably a day proofing through various filters.

Pawnbrokers are not cheap for the ordinary person on a low income, but they are in some cases, a much-needed safety net for people in need of short term cash-bridge to see them through to the next payday. This is why the government gave these type of services critical status after the first lockdown.

Equally, they are an easy source of ready cash for someone purging their unwanted goods that have some cash value. One man's crap is another man's gold...something like that! It is easy to forget that pawnbrokers are jewellers in their own right. When I browsed through the site,, I quickly established a high-quality jewellery demand, like high-end watches, bracelets and rings, easily shipped small packages. The business's online side is small, but this will grow as regular customers become familiar with it. This side of the business is not likely to become the core because there is an overwhelming need for customer-facing interaction with physical goods, and this is, of course, a quicker route to cash, it how the haggling is done.


Do not make the mistake of assuming Ramsdens sell low-value cheap tat; the ring above has a price tag of £14,499 or £182.05 per month.


Patek Philippe
Pre Owned Patek Philippe Annual Calendar Ref 5396G 014
£31,999.00


Rolex
Rolex Daytona Pre Owned Watch Ref 116505
£29,999.00
Pre Owned Patek Philippe Annual Calendar Ref 5396G 014


The loan book side is something I am right pleased I have never needed to use, even though they are typically for a few hundred pounds and not tens of thousands; an APR of 154% or 9% per month can cripple some families on the breadline. It is easy to see how some low-income customers may find themselves rolling over month after month. They can be thankful the APR is not 4 digit APR we often see advertised and the added bonus, their services can be all the difference from keeping the needy out of harm's way that is the loan sharks.

Yeah, I get it, this is not sexy, certainly nowhere near as exciting as chasing the next rainbow stock. This is not what this site is about, it is intended to seek, or hunt-down solid growth companies and if we can catch them ahead of a recovery uptick after they have taken a kicking, then so be it. With Ramsdens, we have a post-Covid-19 recovery play, plus a nice dividend (subject to the company cancelling it) this comes in at 3.1%.

Like many publicly-facing retail outlets, Ramsdens share price has been hit hard from the outset of Covid-19 pandemic. The shares took a swan-dive down to a year low of 68p; they have since recovered if flatlining for most of the year in a tight range around 140p constitutes a recovery while the shares remain someway off the pre-Covid-19 high of 257p. 


As you can see from the chart that begins at the March selloff, there is a prolonged consolidation period with a tilt to the slow downside. I view this as an opportunity to scale-in until such a time, the company offers further guidance. This is subject to your belief, or not as the case may be, of how quickly we are released from the hell of lockdown. 

Ramsdens has not been as hard hit as some highstreet outlets, in the main because most of the stores have remained open for business with safeguards. Even as the country was entering its second national lockdown, Ramsdens announced the UK Government has categorised the company as essential, which of course means the company can remain open for business. As a result, the Group said it expects to keep open more than 90% of its UK store estate during the current national lockdowns imposed in EnglandScotland and Wales, albeit with shortened trading hours. This is of course great news for the company and likely a much-needed lifeline in certain communities in need of cash due to prolonged furlough, or worse, a vital financial bridge for some families that have lost their jobs and find themselves in the bureaucratic minefield attempting to claim state aid. Even so, not everyone can survive on 76% of their salaries; so hocking off those golf clubs, old mobiles, music equipment or jewellery is viewed as an essential service and an important lifeline for cash-strapped individuals and families. OK, this is a really simplistic view and ignores the rest of the business. However, it merely serves a purpose that is to highlight the possible recovery play here the wider market has not picked up on. 

The flatlining of the share price for a prolonged period suggests the market has already factored in the Covid-19 turmoil and is waiting for guidance from the company, perhaps hope that earnings have continued to grow, even if they are not at the same rate pre-Covid-19.

What follows is part of a new feature you will become familiar with. There are three reasons for this. 1. It saves me a lot of time explaining key data 2. If you are anything like me, a visual presentation of key statistics is easier for me to quickly read and understand 3. This feature should be of great benefit to you and in some way, explains my logic for choosing the company featured. 

So, lots and lots of data is expensive via a premium offering I can share with you.





As we can see, one of the key metrics, EPS grew by an impressive 23% last year. The strong recent performance means it was also able to grow EPS by 168% over the last three years.



As we can see from the sector comparison chart, Ramsdens outperformed its peers. Moreover, until Covid-19 struck, there were 5 consecutive years of growth along with a modest IBIT up-trend.

I guess the big question is how long we continue with the national lockdown, and will it be lifted in time for the holiday season; this being the main concern is if holiday bookings don't take off as we hope after COVID-19 if lockdown is extended to say the Autumn?  and the currency exchange takes a hit. The CEO seems well respected.

The company does have a strong online presence. I was browsing the watch section, and to my surprise, there are many high-end watches with the option for higher purchase with a typical APR of 9%, subject to credit checks I imagine. 

All things being equal before Covid-19, at some point I think they will return to at least 10% growth p.a.  This is more pedestrian than some of the companies on the mother site, where I write about fledgelings, startups, and pre-commercial companies with big dreams, some of which have proven to be very exciting as well as lucrative. Hopefully, notwithstanding national disaster's, we should not suffer the wild pitfalls that have befell Ramsdens in the first part of 2020. 

Quick Glance at Key Data







Ramsdens Financial Results for the 18 months ended 30 September 2020



Financial highlights

  • Strong growth in the 12-month period to March 2020 and profitable performance in the final 6-month period despite the impact of Covid-19;
  • Revenue of £76.9m for the Period; Revenue growth of 27% for the comparable 12-month period ended 31 March 2020;
  •  Gross Profit of £47.1m for the Period; Gross profit growth of 22% for the comparable 12-month period ended 31 March 2020;
  • Profit Before Tax of £9.2m for the Period; Profit Before Tax growth of 30% for the comparable 12-month period ended 31 March 2020;
  • Robust cash position, with net cash of £15.9m as at 30 September 2020 and an undrawn £10m revolving credit facility;

Against the backdrop of considerable ongoing uncertainty, challenging trading conditions and continuing to receive government support to protect jobs, the Board believes it is both prudent and in the long-term interest of shareholders to retain its cash resources to trade through this period. This will position the Group to maximise the opportunity when the 'new normal' returns. As a result, the Board is not recommending a final dividend for the Period.

Operational highlights

  • One net store opening after merging eight stores with nearby Ramsdens stores resulting in 153 owned stores at the Period end; four stores relocated in the Period;
  • Continued progress in jewellery retail with £1.9m of e-commerce sales in the Period, representing 9% of all jewellery items sold; 40% of online jewellery sales now made to customers living outside the natural catchment area of the store network;
  • Before the impact of COVID-19, during the year to March 2020, a record of approximately 784,000 customers used the Group's foreign currency service;
  • 6 pawnbroking loan books acquired during the Period; the loan book is considered of high quality with a low loan to value ratio of approximately 60% and an average loan value of £248 as at 30 September 2020;

Peter Kenyon, Chief Executive, commented:

"The 18-month period covered by this statement can be broken down into two distinct sections. Firstly, Ramsdens delivered its strongest ever 12-month performance before the impact of COVID-19 when the business achieved further growth and made strategic progress across each of its income streams. The subsequent impact of COVID-19 and the enforced closures of stores and international travel restrictions demonstrated our diversified business's resilience models resilience. Despite the significant headwinds experienced since March due to the pandemic, we have continued to trade profitably and maintain a strong cash position.

The credit for the Group's performance and continued progress despite these truly unprecedented conditions must go to our committed team and loyal customers. I would like to thank everyone in the Ramsdens community for their fantastic support during this period.

As we move into 2021, a lot of uncertainties remain. However, there are promising signs in the form of a vaccine and - whatever the outcome is - we will have greater clarity regarding what Brexit means for consumers and businesses. Whilst the pandemic has had an unimaginable impact on communities and companies across the UK, we remain very confident that underpinned by our great value customer proposition, strong balance sheet and diversified model, we remain well-positioned to continue our growth trajectory as normality resumes."

This report was first sent to members via email a week before publication. 

                


Two Premium Features will be made available to PREMIUM MEMBERS FIRST at least 5 TRADING DAYS BEFORE PUBLICATION FOR GENERAL RELEASE!

Updates, new content and interviews will be sent to Premium & donor's first.


I realise it is human nature to push against the established norm - 2 years of free research. 
The site data suggest my research is valued by many, but few actually contributed in those 2 years. 
Each research report is carefully researched over many weeks. The content has proven very popular; indeed many readers have invested in the companies featured, many of which have proven to be a great success, including multi-baggers like; AVA Risk Management, OptiBiotix Health, PowerHouse Energy Group, SkinBioTherapeutics, Seeing Machines.

Those of you who have seen the value in work do thank you for your donation, whatever the amount is gratefully received. If you haven't already, please show your appreciation for the many hours of dedicated research, plus company updates and BOD interviews as well as the conduit between investors and BOD. 

Rainbow Chase - (£25 ANNUALLY UNTIL OPT-OUT)- The feature is designed to discover precommercial companies with exciting growth potential. These carry significant risk for failure, but also due to their nature have significant multi-bagger potential. PLEASE PAY HERE!
All existing features are covered by this level.

Zulu Growth - (£35 ANNUALLY UNTIL OPT-OUT) The focus will be on mid-cap companies, but not exclusively. These companies are less risky than Rainbow Chasing because they are carefully selected using specific filters designed to highlight companies that have demonstrated several specific growth indicators over a specific period. By their very nature, these companies are long term features. Zulu Growth offers visual aids for key data designed to offer an overview supporting the direction of travel a company is inPLEASE PAY HERE!

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